Moran Leads Pompeo in Hypothetical Matchup

By JD Johannes, Principal Pollster In a statewide scientific telephone poll of likely Republican Primary voters conducted by Freestate Poll, Jerry Moran leads Mike Pompeo in a hypothetical US Senate primary by double digits. Moran 43.6% Pompeo 21.8% Not Sure 34.5% N=559 Likely Republican Primary Voters Commentary & Analysis Following news reports from last week…

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March Madness by the Numbers

March Madness ended last Monday with what some are calling the greatest final ever played. It was an epic matchup between two powerhouse teams from the ACC and the Big East. I’ve been a fan of teams in the Big 8 / Big 12 for most of my life. I always hear the case being…

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Where do KS Supreme Court Justices Come From?

A scientific random sample poll finds that Kansas voters do not know how Kansas Supreme Court Justices get their jobs. In February 2016 Freestate Poll asked “How do you think Kansas Supreme Court Justices get their position on the court? Are they appointed by the Governor and confirmed by the State Senate? Selected by a…

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Poll: Women Should Remain Exempt from Military Draft

A solid majority of Kansas voters say that women should not have to register with register with Selective Service and should not be subject to a military draft. A few months ago the Secretary of Defense officially opened up all military specialties to women including direct combat roles like infantry and reconnaissance. In response, US…

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KS Caucus: EVERY Undecided Voter Broke for Cruz

The final March 4 Aggregate Average of the three groups polling the KS Caucus showed Trump (23.95%) leading Cruz (19.43%) with 28% undecided. The chart below makes it very clear who the undecided voters broke for.  (Click on the chart to expand it) Because Trump, Rubio & Kasich’s numbers stayed relatively static from the final…

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UPDATE: New Poll Shows Undecided Voters Breaking for Cruz & Trump

A new poll released by the Trafalgar Group shows Trump gaining ground heading into Saturday’s Kansas Republican Caucus. The poll by Trafalgar shows Trump garnering 35% of the vote, up decisively from polling by the Docking Institute and Freestate Poll. Trafalgar has Cruz in second with 29%, Rubio 16%, Kasich 12% and only 6% undecided.…

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Trump Maintains Narrow Lead, Undecided in Second, Cruz Close Behind

In a scientific telephone survey conducted February 28-29 Trump leads heading into the Kansas Republican Caucus on Saturday. There are many hazards in projecting the results of a random sample survey onto a low participation caucus. Even in a more traditional primary election, like in Oklahoma, the polling can be wildly off. The final results…

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No Matter Who is Elected, Nothing Changes

Kansas voters are frustrated. In a random sample telephone survey of Registered Kansas Voters, 78% said that in politics and elections “no matter who is elected, nothing changes.” The question was part of Freestate Poll’s ongoing study of why some participate in elections and others don’t. It asked the question in an indirect/reflective framing that…

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Trump Leads in Kansas, BUT…

…BUT projecting the results of a random sample survey onto a low participation, low intensity caucus is pollster poppycock. As Nate Silver has noted, “The average error for presidential primary polls since 2000 has been 7.7 percentage points — about twice as large as for presidential general elections.” Big elections with high participation and visibility…

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K-12 Education: Kansans Prefer Competition to Improve Schools

Voters think opening up schools to competition and innovation would be a better plan to improve student achievement than spending more money. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of likely Kansas voters say opening Kansas elementary and high schools up to more competition and innovation by allowing parents and their children to decide which school they want to…

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